NFL Divisional picks
Friday, January 12, 2018
What a weekend it was in the NFL. Wild Card weekend went the opposite of last year as all 4 underdogs covered. We had 3 of them, and if the Chiefs don't blow an 18 point 2nd half lead we go 4-0!! On to the Divisional round.
Atlanta -3 at Philadelphia: Well history is made in the first divisional game. For the 1st time in NFL history a number 1 seed is an underdog in the divisional game. Seems ridiculous that a 6 seed could go on the road and be a field goal favourite against the top seed but the injury to Carson Wentz has made that a reality. Atlanta is coming off a very impressive victory at Los Angeles. The Falcons are the defending NFC Champions and most bettors will like their chances against Nick Foles. Lets be honest Foles looked terrible in his last 2 games vs Oakland and Dallas. But the Dallas game meant nothing and he has had 2 weeks to get familiar with this offence. Out of principle along I can't lay 3 point on the road in this game. It will be tight but I have to take the 3 with the home dog and hold my breathe. Pick: Eagles
Tennessee +13 at New England: Just like last year the Patriots are huge favourites in this round. They found a way to cover against Houston 34-16. I expect a similar type game. Lets be honest the TItans are very lucky to be here. How KC blew a 21-3 lead is beyond me even with the injury to Travis Kelce. This is the first time New England will play since the ESPN report was published about the issues between Robert Kraft, Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. In the past the Patriots have always responded well when they have been questioned. The Titans will not be able to have any success on offence throwing the ball so the Pats will focus on slowing down Derrick Henry who put himself on the map after last weeks performance. Winning at Foxbro in the playoffs is very tough and the Titans simply don't have the horses. Pick: Pats
Jacksonville +7.5 at Pittsburgh: Sometimes a certain team just has someones number. That is the case in this matchup. The Jaguars are the last team to win twice in Pittsburgh in one year doing so in 2007 eliminating the Steelers from the playoffs. They destroyed Pittsburgh earlier this year 30-9. Jacksonville comes into this game with the much better defence. They actually outscored Pittsburgh this season as well. The Steelers had a great year and have tons of weapons on offence but for whatever reason the Jags just knows how to beat this team. Jacksonville's defence is a top unit in sacks turnovers and yard allowed. Obviously Pittsburgh has a huge edge at quarterback as Ben Roethlisberger had a great year after his 5 INT performance vs the Jags and Blake Bortles was awful vs Buffalo last week throwing for less than 100 yards in the win. If Bortles can avoid the big mistake and the Jags can grind this game out the points are very exciting to have in your back pocket. Pick: Jacksonville
New Orleans +5 at Minnesota: The Vikings had a great year which started with a week one blow out of the Saints. A lot of people are talking about Minnesota becoming the first team to host and play in the Super Bowl especially after the Carson Wentz injury made Minnesota the NFC favourite. Now the Saints come in here a much different team than they were week 1. This is the most balanced Saints team we have seen. They were so good running the ball all year but last year Drew Brees was balling in the win vs the Panthers. The Saints are a very dangerous team and will give the Vikings a tough test. Minnesota deserves a lot of credit for the year they had and are the most balanced team remaining. At the end of the day despite having a great year Case Keenum should not be favoured by 5 points over Brees who is 21-12 ATS as an underdog of over a field goal. We expect a close game here so we want the points. Pick: Saints
Enjoy the game everyone!!